The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the June-September southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long-period average. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.
The southwest monsoon has officially set over Kerala, albeit delayed from its typical June 1 start. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for the season, expecting around 90% of the long-period average, primarily due to the emerging El Nino conditions.
The monthly average rainfall over India is expected to be below normal during July, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday in its monthly forecast.
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall for India during the second half of the southwest monsoon season, specifically from August to September. This forecast indicates less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the period. While July saw good rainfall activity due to low-pressure systems and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Southern Peninsula experienced significantly low rainfall and record high minimum temperatures.
The southwest monsoon has intensified across India, bringing heavy to extremely heavy rainfall and prompting red alerts for several states, alongside concerns over landslides and urban flooding.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala in the next two to three days, slightly delayed from the typical June 1 start. The department also predicts below-normal rainfall for the season due to emerging El Nino conditions.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
Mumbai and its suburbs experienced widespread pre-monsoon showers, offering relief from the recent heat and humidity. Several areas received moderate to heavy rainfall, with no major disruptions reported.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
After a subdued start, the southwest monsoon has gathered pace since the beginning of July, narrowing the cumulative rainfall deficit from nearly 30 per cent on June 30 to around 15 per cent as of July 8.
The India Meteorological Department has issued a red alert for Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, and Raigad districts for Saturday and Sunday, forecasting extremely heavy rainfall. Mumbai has already experienced significant rainfall this week, and the alert indicates continued severe weather conditions, potentially disrupting normal life.
The Centre has reviewed the monsoon situation, noting a reduced rainfall deficit and ongoing preparedness for the kharif season amidst El Nino concerns. A high-level meeting chaired by the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister discussed measures across various sectors, emphasising continuous monitoring and coordinated action to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and essential commodities.
Climate experts explain how El Nino and climate change are intricately linked, with El Nino delaying monsoon onset and climate change intensifying rainfall. This new reality is altering the Indian monsoon's behaviour, leading to short-duration, high-intensity rain spells, especially in western and northwestern regions.
The southwest monsoon has advanced across northern Indian states, leading to widespread rainfall, waterlogging, road blockages, and rain-related deaths, particularly in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan. The Centre is monitoring the situation, especially concerning potential drought conditions in some areas due to the El Nino effect.
Water levels were even lower than the 10-year average in 27 reservoirs in eastern India and around 47 in southern India.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
Torrential monsoon rains unleashed widespread destruction across several parts of the country on Thursday, inundating roads, uprooting trees, damaging property and disrupting normal life as authorities scrambled to restore normalcy.
Monsoon rains have unleashed widespread destruction across India, claiming seven lives in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka due to landslides and floods, while heavy downpours have disrupted normal life and triggered red alerts in Maharashtra and other regions.
Mumbai and its metropolitan region are experiencing severe monsoon rains, leading to widespread waterlogging, transport disruptions, and the closure of schools and colleges. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an 'extremely heavy rainfall' alert, with some areas receiving nearly 200 mm of rain in 12 hours, prompting Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to urge residents to avoid non-essential travel.
Dilip Buildcon Ltd, the contractor for the Anakkampoyil-Kalladi-Meppadi road tunnel project in Wayanad, attributed a recent fatal landslide to exceptionally heavy rainfall. The company stated that the project adheres to all safety and environmental protocols, despite allegations from Kerala Ministers of a "man-made disaster."
Change of guard in some states and evolving El Nino dynamics are triggering fresh actions on raging water-sharing disputes in several states.
Protect your vehicle from the unpredictable monsoon season by understanding essential motor insurance add-ons like Engine Protect and Zero Depreciation, crucial for covering damages from floods, waterlogging, and preventing costly out-of-pocket expenses.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
Heavy rainfall has caused severe waterlogging across Mumbai, disrupting traffic and daily life. The India Meteorological Department issued a red alert for Mumbai and surrounding districts, advising precautions. Specific areas recorded over 200 mm of rainfall, and the IMD forecasts continued heavy rains for the Konkan region, Goa, South Gujarat, Odisha, and Central India.
Opposition legislators in Mumbai protested against the Maharashtra government, accusing it of failing to protect citizens amidst heavy monsoon rains and crumbling infrastructure. They highlighted issues like open manholes and traffic paralysis. Separately, NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule demanded a statement from the Chief Minister regarding the closure of the Mumbai-Pune Expressway's Missing Link due to heavy rainfall and landslides, questioning its assessment and cost.
"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary"
India's consumption stocks, which have outperformed the broader market, are now facing significant pressure due to a gradual rise in fuel prices and the potential for higher inflation. Analysts warn that companies may be forced to pass on increased input costs to consumers, potentially hurting demand across both staples and discretionary categories, with a looming threat of deficient monsoon rainfall further exacerbating inflationary concerns.
'This system will be of immense help in agricultural planning, disaster management and water resources management.'
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, expected around May 26. This marks the beginning of the crucial rainy season for India.
Heavy monsoon rains have severely impacted Mumbai and its surrounding areas, leading to landslides, suspension of train services, and at least 13 fatalities over the past few days. The Mumbai-Pune Expressway was also shut due to a concrete pillar collapse and waterlogging.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week.
Heavy monsoon rains have caused the Ganga at Rishikesh and the Alakhnanda-Mandakini rivers in Rudraprayag to swell dangerously.
India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
Several districts in Uttar Pradesh experienced rainfall, with Kanpur City recording the highest precipitation. The India Meteorological Department reported a drop in temperatures across the state, including Lucknow, and issued a forecast for continued rain in western UP.
India's finance ministry anticipates inflation will remain relatively contained in the coming months, supported by a correction in crude oil prices and softening input costs following the cessation of the West Asia conflict, despite earlier spikes in wholesale and retail inflation.
The above map shows the amount of rainfall received by each district from June 1 to July 24, 2019.
'Healthy double-digit returns are still possible, though a sharp rally is unlikely.'
Mumbai has spent four centuries building folklore around its monsoon: The potholes, the delayed trains, the office debates about whether it will 'break' this week or next. It turns out the rain was always a market. Nobody had built the exchange for it until now!
